Determine the effective factors of energy systems on the environment: evidence in Iran

چکیده مقاله

Energy production and consumption by human activities are the main factors of greenhouse gas emissions that cause pollution and harmful to environment. Furthermore, it is necessary to determine the effective factors resulting from energy systems on the environment, which is the main goal of this research. The research performed based on the combination of the DPSIR concept and the LMDI decomposition index analysis model. The policy of DPSIR is based on showing the relationship between human pressure and environmental changes and their impacts. The DPSIR model components in this research includes population and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as Driving force, production and consumption and energy intensity (EI) as the Pressure and the amount of renewable energy emission as the Response. The results of DPSIR model components showed that CO2 emissions are most closely related to energy consumption, and there is a direct and significant correlation between energy supply and consumption in Iran with the amount of carbon dioxide and methane emissions. Also, there is an indirect and significant relationship with nitro dioxide. The results LMDI analysis related to the emission of greenhouse gases showed that the main effect on the emitted greenhouse gases is caused by pressure component, and by increasing the factors of this component, the amount of emission has increased. The effect of the driving force component has also had a noticeable impact on the emission rate. Based on this, the highest amount is based on VGDP factor and the effect of factor VSUP is more than VCON. The results of response component showed that if renewable energies are used according to their potential, the emission of greenhouse gases will be significantly reduced.