Prioritizing effective indicators of desertification hazard using factor-cluster analysis, in arid regions of Iran

Abstract

Desertification is considered as a serious threat to natural resources and human communities. Understanding the factors affecting this process can play a key role in proper land management. The current study aims to prioritize important indicators of desertification utilizing factor and cluster analyses in the arid regions of northeastern Iran. At first, the most important criteria of desertification were identified based on the experts’ opinions, literature review, and field works. Important criteria and indices were distributed among 113 experts as the statistical population in the form of a questionnaire in two rounds using the Delphi approach. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed using the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient in SPSS (statistical package for the social sciences). The alpha coefficient was 0.83, which indicates the reliability of the questionnaire. Results showed that the most significant indicators of desertification in northeastern Iran were human activities, climate, water, socio-economic factors, vegetation, agricultural development, soil, geology, and erosion, respectively. By using factor analysis, a total of 27 factors justified 78%of the total variance and were identified as effective parameters on the intensification of desertification in the region. In cluster analysis, important indicators of desertification in the study area were prioritized into five main clusters. Human activities and uncontrolled land-use change for agriculture and industrial development justified the highest variance (about 9%), taking the highest priority. Therefore, the results of this study indicate that factor analysis and clustering are effective tools in prioritizing and identifying main homogeneous criteria for desertification and land degradation.