Prioritizing policies and strategies for desertification risk management using MCDM–DPSIR approach in northeastern Iran

Abstract

Sustainable ecosystem management is an effective approach to prevent and tackle desertification on local and global scales. This study aims to determine and prioritize the main driving forces of desertification in northeastern Iran and to provide appropriate management strategies. This paper proposes effective policies and strategies using the multiplecriteria decision-making (MCDM)–drivers, pressures, states, impacts, responses (DPSIR) approach to reduce the impact of desertification risk in arid regions of northeastern Iran. The main driving forces of desertification were obtained and ranked in terms of significance using one of the most recent approaches in MCDM, i.e., the PROMETHEE method, based on the opinions of 113 experts, field studies, and previous research in the region. The results indicated the existence of 29 main driving forces of desertification. The PROMETHEE method calculates the significance of factors using the phi statistic. The top 15 driving forces, i.e., those with positive phi values (ranged between 0.0071 and 0.0714), were identified and ranked. These 15 driving forces included overgrazing, land-use change, improper land management, drought, reduced precipitation, soil salinity, overpopulation, erosion, waterlogging, overuse of pesticides and fertilizers, inappropriate tillage, improper irrigation, and decreased soil fertility. We found that sensitive biological and physical components are at risk of desertification in the western part of the study area. Such sensitive components can accelerate desertification processes in the places, where they are originated. Accordingly, five categories of policies and 25 strategies for long-term ecologically sustainable management were formulated and suggested based on the prevailing environmental factors, field surveys, and experts’ opinions.