Reliability‑based Operation of Reservoirs Using Combined Monte Carlo Simulation Model and a Novel Nature‑inspired Algorithm

Abstract

One of the critical issues in surface water resources management is the optimal operation of dam reservoirs. In recent decades, meta-heuristics algorithms have gained attention as a powerful tool for fnding the optimal program for the dam reservoir operation. Increasing demand due to population growth and lack of precipitation for reasons such as climate change has caused uncertainties in the afecting parameters on the planning of reservoirs, which invalidates the operational plans of these reservoirs. In this study, a novel optimization algorithm with the combination of genetic algorithm (GA) and multi-verse optimizer (MVO) called multi-verse genetic algorithm (MVGA) has been developed to solve the optimal dam reservoir operation issue under infuence of the joint uncertainties of infow, evaporation and demand. After validating the performance of MVGA by solving several benchmark functions, MVGA was used to fnd the optimal operation program of the Amirkabir Dam reservoir in 132 months, in both deterministic and probabilistic states. Minimizing the defcit between downstream demand and release from the reservoir during the operation period was considered as the objective function. Also, the limitations of the reservoir continuity equation, storage volume, and reservoir release equation were applied to the objective function. For modeling the efect of uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is coupled to MVGA. The results of model implementations showed that the MVGA-MCS model with the best value of the objective function equal to 26 in the 1st rank and MVGA, MVO, and GA, with 15%, 34%, and 46% increase in the value of the objective function compared to the MVGA-MCS stood in the second to fourth ranks, respectively. Also, the results of the resiliency, and vulnerability indices of the reservoir operation showed that MVGA-MCS and MVGA models have better performance than other models.