Spatial Analysis and Prioritization of Solar Energy Development in South Khorasan Province, Iran: An Integrated GIS and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Framework

چکیده مقاله

The use of solar photovoltaic technology is among the most promising approaches to achieving SDG7—Affordable and Clean Energy—which seeks to provide modern, reliable, sustainable, and efficient energy for everyone globally, especially in developing areas with high irradiation, where both energy access and decarbonization are major challenges. South Khorasan Province, Iran, is one of the most highly irradiated regions in the world. However, despite the abundance of solar resources, most previous research in Iran on solar potential has focused on technical potential, with little emphasis on actual energy consumption patterns and economic viability. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demanddriven assessment at the county level and the first national-scale implementation of the MARCOS (Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to Compromise Solution) method for selecting solar energy sites in Iran. A spatially explicit integrated framework based on GIS-MARCOS was established for each of the eleven counties of South Khorasan Province, and five benefits were used as criteria (solar irradiance, population, per capita electrical consumption in residential, industrial, and agricultural sectors). Objective weights were calculated using Shannon’s Entropy. The analysis indicates that residential electricity demand emerges as the most influential factor in the prioritization process. Therefore, the counties of Birjand, Qaenat, and Tabas were identified as top priority counties, while counties with high irradiation levels but low demand (for example, Boshruyeh) received the least priority. These results clearly indicate the need to transition from irradiationbased to demand-based planning to minimize transmission losses and maximize the ability to integrate solar-generated electricity into the electric power grid. This proposed methodology provides a transferable decision-support tool for other high-irradiation, demand-heterogeneous regions around the globe.