Potential distribution and effects of climate change on the risk of scorpion sting with endemic and medically important scorpion Odontobuthus doriae Thorell, 1876 (Arachnida: Scorpionidae: Buthidae) in Iran

Abstract

In this research, the MaxEnt modeling approach was used to distinguish the potential niche and distribution pattern of Odontobuthus doriae, a scorpion mainly endemic to central Iran. In aggregate, 47 occurrence records and five environmental variables were applied in the modeling of current and future periods. Central Iran was confirmed as the most suitable habitat for O. doriae, which approximately corresponds to its known distribution. Among the environmental variables, temperature seasonality and mean temperature of the coldest quarter were the most important driving factors. Interestingly, the current distribution of O. doriae completely corresponds to geographical limitations in the north and the west presented by the Alborz and Zagros Mountains, respectively. Future projection showed a distributional shift towards northern part of Iran. In the context of its medical importance, more studies on biology and ecology of O. doriae could help scientists to better inform, health care management activities.