MODELLING POTENTIAL SNAKEBITE RISKS OF THE ENDEMIC IRANIAN VENOMOUS SNAKE MACROVIPERA RAZII (SERPENTES: VIPERIDAE) UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

The potential distribution of one the most venomous snake species of Iran, the endemic Macrovipera razii, has been studied. A total of 54 occurrence records with four informative environmental variables, including temperature seasonality (bio4), annual precipitation (bio12), precipitation seasonality (bio15), and precipitation of driest quarter (bio17) for present and future periods were used for identifying suitable habitat. Annual precipitation (bio12) was the most important driving factor with 48 % of permutation importance, followed by precipitation seasonality (bio15) with 42.7 % of contribution to the modeling. According to our results and literature, the most suitable habitats of the species are in highland and mountainous regions. Western and southwestern regions of Iran are highly suitable areas for M. razii according to current conditions, which are highly compatible with its known distribution, with the exception of the predicted suitability in a small patchy region of northeastern Iran where another related taxon, Macrovipera lebetina subsp. cernovi, is present. Future predictions reveal a similar potential distribution. Further research on M. razii is crucial and should encompass various aspects such as the analysis of venom components, field studies, and comprehensive molecular investigations. These efforts are necessary to determine the taxonomic status of M. razii, understand its distribution patterns, and develop effective anti-venom treatments.