A study of current and future distribution modeling of scorpion sting of deadly scorpion, Hemiscorpius acanthocercus (Scorpiones: Hemiscorpiidae) in southern Iran under climate change

چکیده مقاله

Scorpion stings represent a major public health issue, especially in tropical and subtropical regions like Iran, scorpion stings are commonly ignored and under-reported. Hemiscorpius is medically important genus in the family Hemiscorpiidae, comprising approximately 19 described species. This study aims to estimate the potential distribution of Hemiscorpius acanthocercus, identify suitable habitats, examine environmental constraints on its range, and provide insights into the species’ ecology and areas at increased risk of scorpion stings. Using MaxEnt, I analyzed 63 occurrence records of H. acanthocercus with 4 temperature, 2 precipitation variables, and vegetation cover. The most influential predictors in the best-fitting distribution model were BIO4 (Temperature seasonality; 67.5%), BIO7 (Annual temperature range; 13.6%). The models indicate that the species is currently distributed along the Persian Gulf, particularly in Hormozgan, Kerman, Fars, and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. Future projections under RCP 8.5 suggest slight northward shifts into higher latitudes, particularly into northern Hormozgan and Kerman provinces, with areas in Bushehr and Sistan and Baluchestan also predicted as highly suitable. The persistence and expansion of this medically significant species under future climate scenarios underline the importance of ongoing monitoring, public awareness campaigns, and proactive sting prevention—particularly to protect children, who are most at risk.