Predicting the Present and Future Distribution of Medusahead and Barbed Goatgrass in Iran

Abstract

Aims Medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae (L.) Nevski) and barbed goatgrass (Aegilops triuncialis L.) are two annual species that drastically affect rangelands worldwide. In the present study, the current distribution range of these species was investigated using ecological niche modelling (ENM), and then their distribution was predicted in 2040 and 2070. Materials & Methods In this study, using 19 bioclimatic variables and the recorded presence locations, the current distribution of T. caput-medusae and A. triuncialis was predicted using MaxEnt. Moreover, changes in the distribution ranges of these species in the future (2040 and 2070) were estimated. Findings According to the results, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and Isothermality had the greatest effect on the distribution of A. triuncialis in the present and future. For T. caput-medusae distribution in the present, 2040, and 2070 the mean temperature of the coldest quarter had the highest effect on determining the potential distribution range of this plant. Accordingly, climate change will not affect the distribution range of barbed goatgrass, however, it may facilitate the expansion of medusahead to the upper elevations. Conclusion In the present, comparing the two, barbed goatgrass had a higher probability to invade rangelands of Iran. Climate change might facilitate the invasion of medusahead to upper elevations. Grazing exclusion is advised to control the range expansion of these two species where they are present.