| Authors | Seyed Mousa Mousavi-Kouhi,Erfanian MB |
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| Journal | Ecopersia |
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| Page number | 41-46 |
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| Serial number | 8 |
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| Volume number | 1 |
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| Paper Type | Full Paper |
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| Published At | 2020 |
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| Journal Grade | ISI |
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| Journal Type | Typographic |
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| Journal Country | Iran, Islamic Republic Of |
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| Journal Index | isc |
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Abstract
Aims Medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae (L.) Nevski) and barbed goatgrass (Aegilops
triuncialis L.) are two annual species that drastically affect rangelands worldwide. In the
present study, the current distribution range of these species was investigated using ecological
niche modelling (ENM), and then their distribution was predicted in 2040 and 2070.
Materials & Methods In this study, using 19 bioclimatic variables and the recorded presence
locations, the current distribution of T. caput-medusae and A. triuncialis was predicted using
MaxEnt. Moreover, changes in the distribution ranges of these species in the future (2040 and
2070) were estimated.
Findings According to the results, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and
Isothermality had the greatest effect on the distribution of A. triuncialis in the present and
future. For T. caput-medusae distribution in the present, 2040, and 2070 the mean temperature
of the coldest quarter had the highest effect on determining the potential distribution range of
this plant. Accordingly, climate change will not affect the distribution range of barbed goatgrass,
however, it may facilitate the expansion of medusahead to the upper elevations.
Conclusion In the present, comparing the two, barbed goatgrass had a higher probability to
invade rangelands of Iran. Climate change might facilitate the invasion of medusahead to upper
elevations. Grazing exclusion is advised to control the range expansion of these two species
where they are present.
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