Seismic Risk in Alborz: Insights from Geological Moment Rate Estimation and Fault Activity Analysis

چکیده مقاله

The stress resulting from the continuous movements of the Earth’s crust plates, specifically the Arabian and Eurasian plates, is a primary driver of seismic activity in Iran, leading to the formation of distinctive geological structures in various sub-zones, including the Alborz mountain range (Figure 1). The Alborz region encompasses major cities such as Tehran, Rasht, Karaj, Zanjan, Qazvin, Sari, and Gorgan, which have experienced devastating historical earthquakes. The mechanism and density of faults in the Alborz mountain range significantly affect its seismicity parameters. Therefore, a thorough examination of these seismic parameters can provide valuable insights into the seismicity of these cities, particularly Tehran, the capital of Iran, in terms of the magnitude and timing of potential future earthquakes. It is important to note that deformations resulting from stress can propagate and impact surrounding areas. Movements in one area can create deformations in adjacent regions, highlighting the interconnectedness of seismic activity in the Alborz region. As such, a holistic approach that considers all active faults and their hazards in relation to a specific point, such as Tehran city, can facilitate a more comprehensive analysis of seismic risks in different parts of the Alborz zone