Assessment and efficiency of CMIP6 models in simulation and prediction of climatic parameters of precipitation and temperature in the Samalghan basin, Iran

Abstract

In the present study, four global climate models MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6ALR, CanESM5, and GFDL-ESM4 from the set of CMIP6 models are assessed to select the best model and determine the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation parameters under three shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the base period (1988–2017) and a future period (2020–2049) in the Samalghan basin. Statistical measures such as mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean bias error are applied to test the models, and the correlation coefficient is used to compare the results of the historical period of the models with the observational data of the selected stations. Taking the obtained results into account, the global climatic model IPSLCM6A- LR is chosen to study the trend of temperature and precipitation changes in the future period under scenarios. The results of this study indicate an increasing trend of the average annual precipitation in the desied period compared to the base period for the SSP1- 2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios at all stations. Also, it increases in the SSP5-8.5 scenario for all stations except Besh Ghardash, Hesegah and Darkesh stations. The predictions of temperature show an increase in the minimum and maximum temperature values under all scenarios compared to the base period.