Evaluation and forecasting of hot days in the Zahedan city

چکیده مقاله

As the frequency of hot days increases, heat stresses in cities will increase and this will be one of the most important challenges of the coming decades. A large part of the vulnerability of the population in urban areas is caused by urban heat waves, which creates emer - gency conditions and mortality due to hot day in these areas. The Zahedan city with 660,575 people is the largest point population in the southeast of the Iran, and also faces with this challenge. The purpose of this study is to investigate the hot day of the Zahedan and predict them for future periods. In this study, long-term statistics (1981-2020) of the Zahedan station were used and data were simulated with LARS-WG model. Then, the maximum temperature data were selected using the temperature threshold percentile method and after programming in Matlab environment, the Zahedan hot days were extracted for future periods. The findings of this study showed that hot days will reach 6000 days by 2099 and winter hot day will increase. Also, short heat waves have become more frequent and long-term heat waves will occur more than in previous periods, this event provides the conditions for creating thermal stresses and public health challenges for citizens.