Perceptions of and adaptation to climate change in mountainous agro-pastoral communities: The case of the Afghan central highlands

چکیده مقاله

Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for agro-pastoral families in the central highlands of Afghanistan. However, their livelihoods have been significantly affected by climate change. This study examines climate change perceptions, consequences, and adaptive capacity from agro-pastoral communities’ experiences and behaviours in the five central provinces of Afghanistan. A survey was conducted in 521 agro-pastoral households to collect data on socioeconomic factors, perceptions, and adaptation indicators. The results show how agro-pastoral communities are affected by climate change, how they adapt, and which factors influence their decision-making and challenges when using traditional knowledge in adaptation. The analysed data revealed perceptions of both the positive and negative consequences of climate change. Positive consequences include shorter cold seasons, fewer avalanches, improved accessibility, reduced fuel requirements for heating, and extended grazing seasons. However, the perceived negative consequences of climate change include recurrence of severe and sustained droughts, decreased snowfall, and reduced crop yields. Additionally, K-means cluster analysis revealed low, medium, and high levels of adaptation to climate change. Agro-pastoral families have adopted various strategies to improve their adaptation to climate change, including crop, soil, water, livestock, expenditure, and livelihood management. Furthermore, socio-demographic factors, drought severity, perceived climate change, and perceived climate change impacts were the main determinants of adaptation to climate change. This study outlines the main gaps and drivers to help future researchers, managers, and decision-makers prioritize their actions based on farmers’ concerns and their adaptive capacity to abate climate change impacts.