Assessment of the effect of climate change on the yields and water footprint of crops in arid area

Abstract

nvestigating the actual amount of water used by agricultural crop yield is very important. This research evaluates the impact of climate change on water demand, yields, and green and blue water footprint of barberry and jujube plants under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results show that the amount of precipitation in the future under three scenarios varies from −13.08 to 5.13 mm during the future period. It shows maximum temperature changes from 1.07 to 1.25 °C and minimum temperature changes from 1.15 to 1.54 °C. The maximum and minimum temperatures under all three scenarios have an increasing trend compared to the base period. The results show that the values of water requirement, blue water footprint, green water footprint, total water footprint, and finally the relative values of both crop yields increase in all three scenarios in the future period (2022–2038) compared to the base period (2021–2005). Furthermore, according to the three proposed scenarios, the water footprint of the barberry crop in the future is estimated to be 98.74% blue water and 1.24% green water. The jujube crop's water footprint consists of 98.81% blue water and 1.20% green water.